Imagine you could look down on Europe from above, like a giant chessboard. What would you see? A recent study conducted by Matteo Mura, Mariolina Longo, Sara Zanni and Laura Toschi of the University of Bologna reveals a surprising and rapidly changing landscape, where sustainability is not just a fashionable term, but a reality that is shaping the continent’s future in unexpected ways.
The study, entitled “Exploring socio-economic externalities of development scenarios. An analysis of EU regions from 2008 to 2016″ and published in the Journal of Environmental Management, identified four development scenarios in European regions, each with its own unique mix of environmental impact and economic performance. And guess what? “Green growth” is not just a myth: as many as 120 European regions are proving that it is possible to reduce emissions and grow the economy at the same time. In particular, some regions are achieving relative “decoupling,” reducing CO2 emissions by 13.6 percent while increasing their Gross Value Added (GVA) by 37.5 percent. Other regions are showing absolute “decoupling,” with emission reductions of 41.3 percent and GVA growth of 14.3 percent.
But, of course, it is not the same for all regions. Some are experiencing a “green degrowth,” reducing emissions yes, but at the cost of an economic slowdown. These regions, while helping to reduce CO2 emissions, face a GVA decline by 11.4 percent, reflecting an economic weakness that can lead to significant social problems. Other regions, on the other hand, are trapped in “black growth” or even “black degrowth” scenarios, where the environment and the economy both suffer: the former experience a 59.2 percent increase in CO2 emissions with 24.9 percent economic growth, while the latter see a 65.2 percent increase in emissions combined with a 12.7 percent economic downturn.
The study was not limited to an analysis of data on the economy and CO2, but dug deeper, revealing the social and economic consequences of these different development paths. Do you think that the regions that are reducing emissions are automatically creating a haven of innovation and prosperity? Not so fast. While some “green growth” areas are actually seeing a boom in value-creating R&D investment, new skills and jobs, others are struggling with increased risk of poverty and declining industrial employment.
In particular, regions that are succeeding in relative “decoupling” show a significant increase in technological skills and R&D investments, resulting in an improved economic performance. However, the scenario is different for “green degrowth” regions, where the decline in skills and investment is accompanied by an increasing risk of poverty. “Black degrowth” regions, on the other hand, face the simultaneous deterioration of economic and environmental conditions, with a devastating impact on social cohesion.
This research raises important questions for the future of Europe. How can we ensure that the transition to a greener economy does not leave entire communities behind? Can environmental sustainability be reconciled with social and economic sustainability? Researchers at the University of Bologna do not offer easy answers, but they provide us with the tools to begin asking the right questions. Their work highlights the need for tailored policies that take into account the particularities of each region, rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach. It also shows us that Europe’s future hangs in the balance, with enormous opportunities, but also significant risks: without appropriate policy interventions, regions that currently fall under the green degrowth scenario could fall into a spiral of impoverishment and loss of economic opportunities.
Do you want to know how your region is doing in this major transition? Are you curious to find out what lessons we can learn from areas that are succeeding in balancing sustainability and prosperity? The full study offers a treasure trove of information that could change the way you think about sustainable development.
